Disclaimer: This post contains thoughts on crypto, a volatile and risky asset class. It is not investment advice, and you should do your own research. All information is for educational purposes only. Please don’t take risks with money you’re not willing to lose.

June has been rather disappointing due to an influx of upcoming liquidation events. While there was momentum coming into first week of the month - with BTC retesting $72k - tokens across the board have largely been in a downtrend ever since.

Gox Headwinds

Earlier this month, liquidators of the failed Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox announced that its creditors would start getting repayments come July.

While unconfirmed, it’s estimated that Mt. Gox will be distributing between 65,000 and 140,000 tokens to its customers. At current market prices, the upper end equates to nearly $9b - causing worry around potential selling pressure throughout summer.

Subject to these developments, BTC dumped from $72k to $59k within a span of two weeks. Long-term holders embraced for chop, while it feels like traders largely front ran the upcoming selloffs.

The Gox FUD campaign has played out several times before, but is perhaps more justified in this instance;

1. Gemini users paid back in-kind, negative price action ever since

2. impending October repayment deadline

Considering Mt. Gox creditors have essentially been sitting on locked positions since 2014 BTC prices ($400-$800), it’s likely that many will immediately liquidate their holdings if July settlements come to fruition. Regardless, I’m optimistic that desperate claims have been bought out and/or ETF inflows will remain strong enough to counteract sellers.

Seize & Sell

Further contributing to the month’s downtrend, the German government was spotted transferring millions of Bitcoin to centralized exchanges such as Kraken and Coinbase.

The transactions originated from a wallet address associated with the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) of which had previously seized nearly 50,000 BTC from a film piracy website back in 2013.

National governments will custody crypto for a variety of reasons, but it’s common to see these seized holdings eventually get sold off - large transfers to CEXs generally implies an intent to soon thereafter liquidate / off-ramp.

While Germany’s total stockpile sits north of $3b, the transferred assets represent an amount (<20%) that would have very little effect on Bitcoin’s price if sold. Regardless, the narrative itself was enough to compound on Mt. Gox rumblings.

You can view the entity’s transactions and holdings via Arkham.

SEC Strikes Again

Rounding off the negative news, Gary Gensler’s legal onslaught on crypto continues as the SEC has now filed a lawsuit against MetaMask’s developer Consensys. According to the complaint, the company has brought in upwards of $250m in fees by offering staking services without proper registration. Furthermore, it outlines that the facilitation of investments in popular staking pools such as Lido and Rocket warrants operating as in an intermediary in unregistered transactions.

Adhering to the SEC’s said role, this lawsuit lies on the basis that such actions deny essential protections for investors. Whereby crypto as an industry has continuously demanded for regulatory clarity, muddied guidelines are now unfortunately leading US-based startups to become ‘example cases’.

As is the result of an administration that regulates through enforcement, at least staking services will receive greater legal attention / clarity as this case evolves.

Solana ETF Filings

More positively adjacent to my bags, two of the largest asset managers recently filed applications for Solana ETFs. Similarly pioneering Bitcoin and Ether products, VanEck and 21Shares are the first to take steps towards deeming SOL a commodity.

As digital assets continue to capture institutional demand (and being the third most popular Layer 1), SOL ETFs were naturally next in line. However, ETH ETFs are still awaiting final approval from the SEC so I wouldn’t expect any major forthcomings this year.

To be fair, I’d rather ride the speculation of what demand might look like rather than what it actually is. Belief is usually inflated reality.

Blinks

Consistent with my Solana thesis as outlined in March Madness, developers continue to ship products that more seamlessly bridge Web2 users into crypto. Announced and launched earlier this week, Blockchain Links (or Blinks) deepen the consumer-aimed suite.

In their current state, crypto transactions are largely gated behind dApp interfaces that further complicate understanding (and therefore a user’s willingness to cooperate). Tokens are easily-purchasable, but protocols are overwhelming - accessibility should apply to the ecosystem being built around the value-accruing asset.

Blinks pack onchain actions into shareable links, effectively bringing the Solana interface anywhere on the internet. Rather than forcing users into a new environment, blinks meet them where they are. Some examples include:

• requesting a payment in a text message

• voting on governance in a chatroom

• buying an NFT on social media

While Blinks bring Solana Actions to existing websites, Solana Actions themselves are APIs that return Solana transactions. Exemplified in the above instance, the result is a way to seamlessly integrate an otherwise complex process right into the native platform (buying an NFT via X).

Portfolio Update

Despite being a lackluster June, my allocations have and will remain the same for the foreseeable future. At the end of the day, it felt like a flush was needed before another leg up for the entire market. In fact, BTC is only down 7% on the month and yet it feels like everyone is already calling for the end of the cycle. Alarmingly high fear at 60k is a comfortable spot to be in :)