Disclaimer: This post contains thoughts on crypto, a volatile and risky asset class. It is not investment advice, and you should do your own research. All information is for educational purposes only. Please don’t take risks with money you’re not willing to lose.

April opened under a cloud of tariff angst and closed with Bitcoin back near fresh cycle highs. Early on, President Trump’s highly anticipated “Liberation Day” set off liquidations that dragged BTC to $74.5k, erasing almost $400b in total market value. Fortunately, the second half of the month was much different. Regulated demand switched on, and Bitcoin finished at $94k, up 13‑14 % for the period and roughly 15% above its 200‑day average.

Behind the reversal was spot ETFs. BlackRock’s IBIT posted a single week haul of $1.5b late in the month and, together with peers, absorbed ~29,800 BTC over five trading sessions (the heaviest intake since November 2024). That bid compressed realized volatility to cycle lows, with Bitcoin trading calmer than the Nasdaq for the first time this year. The rally, in other words, was financed by the most regulated rail now available to retail.

While tariff volatility flushed momentum traders, the longer term tailwinds remain strong as ever.

Macro

Macro prints screamed stagflation, ‑0.3 % Q1 GDP alongside 2.6% core PCE, but price action emphasized that liquidity was alive and well.

• Derivatives: CME’s crypto suite set all time highs at 198k contracts ADV (~ $11.3b notional) and 120k contracts OI in Q1. Binance quarterlies showed a muted 6% annualized basis, confirming that many spot ETF buyers are hedging in regulated futures rather than levering up in perps.

• Onchain supply: Bitcoin held on exchanges fell to 14% of the total supply, a seven-year low, while daily block fees briefly cleared $12k. Liquidity didn’t disappear, it migrated. ETF straw → CME hedge → onchain settlement.

• Risk spreads: Tariff headline risk kept Treasury vols elevated, but the crypto basis continues to compress, suggesting directional bets are funded with low lev structures rather than outright longs.

TLDR; Policy uncertainty is not necessarily draining cash, but rather redirecting it towards the rails investors trust most.

Policy

Regulators nudged, thankfully all towards clarity. The FDIC rescinded its 2022 prior notice letter, allowing supervised banks to now engage in permissible crypto activities under standard safety and soundness rules (essentially removing a stealth ban on custody). The OCC mirrored the move with Interpretive Letter 1183, confirming that crypto asset custody, stablecoin activities, and node participation are permissible without formal non‑objection. At the markets level, SEC Chair Paul Atkins used an April speech to put a 12–18 month window on a bespoke trading venue and stablecoin rule set, the first concrete timeline in years.

Across the Atlantic, the UK Treasury published a draft framework that would place exchanges, dealers, and custodians inside the standard FSMA perimeter by 2026; giving it the country’s best shot at leapfrogging Europe’s MiCA regime and courting US liquidity.

Taken together, these steps expand the pool of compliance‑ready capital. The effect is unlikely to be a sudden rerating, but incremental lawmaking does underpin the ‘own‑the‑rails’ thesis that has led flows virtually all year.

Venture

Galaxy Digital’s Q1 snapshot puts venture deployment at $4.9b across 446 deals, the highest since 2022. However, remove the $2b Binance strategic round and dollar totals actually fall 15% quarter‑on‑quarter to $2.8b, illustrating how selective risk appetite has become. Moreover, roughly two‑thirds of that capital landed in later‑stage rounds for trading infrastructure, exchanges, and DeFi revenue engines, while early‑stage deals continued a multi‑quarter slide. Geographically, US firms still led deal count at 38.6%, but the UK, Singapore, and the UAE captured a growing share of dollars, mirroring the regulatory clarity story developing on the policy side.

In practical terms, mature exchanges and settlement rails leave April with fresh runway, whereas more consumer‑facing projects will lean harder on token treasuries unless the fundraising window widens.

Narratives

Bitcoin dominance reached the high 60s, historically the ceiling before alt szn. However, rotation so far has been pretty narrow.

Messari’s revenue tables also show Tron and Hyperliquid topping fee leaderboards, out-earning even Solana. Meanwhile, Ethereum slipped ‑4% and its fee share dropped to 13.7%, reflecting user migration towards alt-L1s.

Until ETF inflows slow or BTC.D decisively turns, high beta winners will likely come from chains or sectors that can demonstrate upfront value parlayed with near‑term catalysts.

Portfolio Update

While Q1 felt like an eternity, it feels like the worst is behind us as the trade war slowly resolves itself. Uncertainty was at all time highs, and markets rightfully reflected that. However, as the title suggests, April was a month for (re)-allocating into conviction bets amidst all the damage. After taking some chips off the table over the last few months, I repositioned some idle capital into HYPE, a protocol that I’ve touched upon several times now. Although I don’t include trench holdings in my port, onchain activity is coming back to life with our first 50m runner in weeks. As such, I’ve also taken some ‘gambling money’ to low-caps. All in all, the broader reversal is setting us up for a nice summer, with Trump’s 90-day tariff deadline being the next large headwind so long as macro doesn’t puke itself in the meantime.