Disclaimer: This post contains thoughts on crypto, a volatile and risky asset class. It is not investment advice, and you should do your own research. All information is for educational purposes only. Please don’t take risks with money you’re not willing to lose.

While 2024 was undoubtedly a pivotal year for crypto, 2025 felt underwhelming in contrast. BTC has underperformed metals and indices all year, L1 revenues and valuations are down only, and our favorite casino had its kiss of death with the Trump family memecoin launches. Despite the grim price action and subsequent sentiment from basement dwellers on the 1m chart, there has still been meaningful progress made beneath the surface. Policy is continuing to loosen, prediction markets have crossed the chasm, and protocols are becoming more equitable toward token holders.

Reflections

What now feels like the most obvious blowoff top for the trenches, the President of the United States launched his own memecoin in January. TRUMP skyrocketed, enriching those with quick hands while simultaneously sucking liquidity across the category dry. The First Lady’s rendition, MELANIA, went live just two days later, confirming the extractive nature of the grift and further punishing more speculative cryptoassets.

As focus shifted to fundamentals, Hyperliquid soared in popularity due to its devout community and sustainable revenue generation. Notably absent of VCs and generously rewarding early users, momentum carried from its November ‘24 TGE into the new year. The perp DEX meta ignited, and more significantly, investors began to align with protocols backed by real usage and profitability.

Tempering his earlier antics, President Trump signed in an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile on March 6th. The former is funded with BTC seized from criminal or civil forfeiture proceedings. While it’s been mentioned that the reserve will never be sold, there’s no clarity on potential strategic purchases. The latter consists of all other digital assets forfeited to the Department of Treasury. This reserve will not see any additional acquisitions.

In April, Liberation Day ushered in a new era of macroeconomic policy with reciprocal tariffs imposed upon nearly all trade partners. Met with volatility and propagated by Trump’s sporadic online discourse, markets faced their first large drawdown since flipping bullish in late 2023. The S&P fell over 2,000 bps from its February high, BTC retraced 30% in that same timeframe, and many alts made cycle lows.

Alongside the introduction of pro-crypto policies such as the GENIUS and Clarity Acts, several notable companies went public throughout summer. Among these were Gemini, Galaxy, and Circle, whose IPO was easily one of the most successful in recent history. Although shares are now trading just double their launch price, CRCL exponentially grew in the month following its NYSE listing, confirming the institutional demand for stablecoins.

Pump.fun completed its journey from most hated to unicorn, launching in September after a $1.3b raise at $4b FDV. Raking in over $1m in daily fees, the team announced a token buyback model that sent PUMP to its current ATH. Soon after, Polymarket received $2b from the NYSE’s parent company, valuing them at $9b. Launchpads found PMF amongst crypto-natives, prediction markets entered the mainstream cultural zeitgeist.

After ranging for nearly three years, Zcash went on a historic run, briefly entering the top 10 tokens by market capitalization. An afterthought until recently, the bull case for privacy coins now remains as strong as ever. With quantum fears growing around Bitcoin’s security, zk-SNARKs enable QC-resistant privacy via ‘shielded’ transactions. Maintaining these features during cross-chain execution, NEAR Intents have only sped up adoption.

Despite coming out of a choppy summer, both BTC and TOTAL3 made new highs in October. Days later, the short-lived euphoria was eviscerated by crypto’s largest liquidation event ever as Trump re-escalated tariff concerns with China. The post-mortem revealed >$20b in losses, OTHERS wicked nearly 50%, and select alts legitimately gapped to zero.

You Are Here

Excluding a meager relief bounce, virtually all tokens have been in a downtrend since the infamous ‘10/10’. However, the dust has now settled and BTC is beginning to print what looks to be a constructive bottom. Although CT remains a ghost town, alts are quietly running out of sellers alongside maturing retail behavior. As former ParaFi partner Santiago Santos neatly outlined in his albeit doomer end of year piece, “crypto is graduating from the main character to being invisible”. While I don’t necessarily agree with his pessimistic outlook on infrastructure valuations, the above notion well-encapsulates 2025’s broader theme: promising adoption, stagnant prices. Speculative assets will always exist, but we’re transitioning to a more fundamentally-driven environment. It’s undoubtedly frustrating as a trader, but as an investor, builder, or believer, crypto remains steady along its path to global financial democracy. 2026 will deepen that moat.

Predictions

Bitcoin's four-year cycle will officially break. BTC trades in the $75k-$150k range without a blowoff top. ETF inflows have transformed BTC from retail speculation into a macro asset with systematic institutional allocation. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve further removes selling pressure from government seizures. Our beloved digital gold becomes boring, but reliable.

The combined market cap of MetaDAO ecosystem ownership coins will exceed $1b. This metric sits below $200m today, yet ownership coins are what governance tokens were supposed to be. They imply real treasury control, legal enforceability, and founder accountability. Each successful ICO validates the model, attracts better founders, and reprices the entire category. “Voting rights” become “shareholder rights”.

At least one major sovereign wealth fund will publicly disclose a BTC allocation. Following the SBR, game theory dictates that competing nations should hedge. Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala, and Singapore's GIC are all candidates. Sovereign wealth funds collectively manage $12t. Even a 0.5% allocation across a handful would represent $30b+ in new demand. This is the logical next step after ETFs, corporate treasuries, and the US reserve.

DEXs will capture 30%+ of total crypto trading volume. The structural shift from centralized to decentralized trading accelerates. 10/10 exposed CEX counterparty risks, renewing Binance hate and the migration to self-custodial venues. Meanwhile, DEXs have reached feature parity with CEXs. Equity perpetuals will attract a new TradFi cohort seeking 24/7 markets, pushing the spot ratio above 30% and derivatives past 20%.

Stablecoin market cap will hit $500b, with USDC gaining meaningful market share. The GENIUS Act created the first federal stablecoin framework requiring 100% reserve backing and monthly disclosures. Post-IPO, Circle must now demonstrate growth to justify its valuation, taking share from non-compliant incumbents. Tether’s dominance drops below 55% as institutional flows demand auditability over obscurity.

ETH/BTC will reclaim 0.05. While CT writes its obituary, Wall Street has quietly identified ETH as the yield asset distinct from BTC’s commodity status. Tom Lee's Bitmine accumulated 3.5% of the total supply and more recently staked $4b. Over half of stablecoins and tokenized RWAs still settle on mainnet. ETH remains the highest-beta liquid alt.

Prediction markets will process $50b+ in volume. Kalshi’s CFTC victory and Robinhood integration opened the floodgates, transforming prediction markets from niche novelties into mainstream financial products for hedging political and outcome-based risk. The 2026 Midterms become the most wagered-on event in history. LLM oracles will become the standard for dispute resolution.

In Sum

Crypto is finally growing up. Alongside the transition from speculation to fundamentals, winners will likely look different. Value investors who stuck around for revenue, usage, and sustainable tokenomics will finally be rewarded. Price action may stay dull, but strong metas will emerge and pockets of alt outperformance will materialize. As always, those who ride currents instead of fight them will win.

Even as the asset class matures, the casino will always exist. Crypto remains one of the few markets where asymmetric returns are still possible, where a few thousand dollars and good judgment can still change your life. The infrastructure is tested, regulatory clarity is here, and institutions are breathing down our necks. Fortunately, the edges haven't been arbitraged away just yet. There's no better industry on earth. Cheers to 2026.