Disclaimer: This post contains thoughts on crypto, a volatile and risky asset class. It is not investment advice, and you should do your own research. All information is for educational purposes only. Please don’t take risks with money you’re not willing to lose.

As we turn the page to a new year, it feels fitting to take a few steps back and reflect on what’s happened, where we are, and where we’re headed.

Reflections

While the microcosms of CT echo 1-minute chart sentiment, convincing realm-goers that things are often worse than they actually are, 2024 was a pivotal year for crypto.

BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds were approved and launched, marking a monumental step in bridging traditional finance with crypto. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other asset management giants were among the participants, unlocking access to fresh institutional capital that was previously hesitant to interact with digital assets. Performing notably well, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted just north of $36b throughout the past year. While Grayscale’s selling dragged the aggregate total down, Larry Fink managed to round up nearly $38b, making IBIT inflows the third highest amongst all US ETFs in 2024.

Ushering in favorable policy-making and Bitcoin’s acceptance as a Federal Reserve currency (hopefully), a pro-crypto administration was elected. Filling their cabinet with advocates, Paul Atkins, who has been outspokenly positive about our industry, has already been chosen to replace Gary Gensler as SEC Chair. This nomination is key to preventing the unruly lawsuits that have long hindered US-based startups, while further attracting innovation back to the states.

Although venture rebounded, the most exciting startups were organic breakout apps. Perhaps that’s a misrepresentation, but they all lacked substantial VC funding. With less hands in the pot, the true pioneers, or early users, reaped a greater share of the growth. Among these were pump.fun, riding tailwinds of the ‘memecoin supercycle’ and becoming Solana’s go-to launchpad in the process, and Moonshot, an iOS app allowing users to buy memecoins with Apple Pay, simplifying access for non-crypto natives. Hyperliquid also shined, establishing itself as everyone’s favorite perps DEX during the summer chop, with seamless UI and timely token listings to keep the gamblers busy.

While still capturing a majority of attention, the AI meta developed amidst a lack of depth to the thousands of daily launches that began to dilute our beloved trenches. GOAT led the initial rally as its corresponding X bot rambled musings akin to a B-tier shitposter with a degree in philosophy. Developers subsequently poured in, leading to more sophisticated frameworks such as ai16z and Virtuals that have enabled users to launch their own agents. The jury is still out, but many are latching to these early adaptations.

Of course there were several other important narratives that kept things interesting around here, but all in all, 2024 was incredibly kind to us. ‘Price go up’ certainly isn’t the only reflection of the above, but let’s take a look at a few charts anyways.

You Are Here

As 2025 begins, we find ourselves at a key inflection point. Regulatory optimism is palpable. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is likely. Venture will deliver this year? Whatever, there’s plenty of things to be excited about. On the other hand, global liquidity is thinner than usual. The macroeconomic landscape is mediocre (at best). Trump is a wildcard?

Sentiment is equally as split. Half of the herd claims the top is in, a quarter is determined BTC goes to $1m this cycle, and the remainder are somewhere being sane.

Put me in the last group.

Predictions

Nobody has a crystal ball. Moreover, no thesis is immune to unprecedented circumstances (i.e. Covid). Perhaps none of these will come to fruition, or maybe all of them will. Let’s check back in 2026.

Trump will sign an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the first three months of presidency. The incoming administration has already signaled its commitment to bolstering Bitcoin’s position in the US economy, with Senator Cynthia Lummis introducing legislation to buy 1m BTC over five years. Beyond symbolism, this will legitimize Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset akin to gold, a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Other nations will follow, especially those seeking alternatives to dollar dependency. Smaller countries like El Salvador, which already hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, will be the first to expand their reserves in response.

Circle, Gemini, and Kraken will all have initial public offerings. As regulatory clarity improves and institutional adoption accelerates, the IPO pipeline for crypto-native companies is set to grow. Circle, with its dominance in stablecoin issuance, and Kraken, a trusted global exchange, are primed for public offerings. Gemini, leveraging its emphasis on compliance and user security, could also re-establish itself as a leader in the US market. IPOs will allow these firms to raise significant capital, further integrating crypto into traditional financial systems while providing investors direct exposure to the industry.

Three SOL memecoins will reach a market capitalization of $10b. Solana’s high throughput and low fees create the perfect consumer environment, enabling its ecosystem the scalability needed to onboard millions of users. The ‘memecoin supercycle’ will regain attention, with retail traders flocking to more speculative assets that generate outsized returns as BTC.D drops. Listings on major exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood will provide the liquidity and visibility necessary for these coins to achieve such high valuations.

Both XRP and SOL exchange-traded funds will go live before Q4. The success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024 has paved the way for the next wave of digital asset ETFs, with XRP and SOL leading the charge. Ripple’s partial court victory and its expanding institutional partnerships have bolstered confidence in XRP as a regulatory-compliant asset, while Solana’s rapid growth throughout this cycle has solidified its position as another top contender. Moreover, it was recently announced that both tokens have CME futures set to go live on February 10 (pending review). The launch of regulated futures markets, a historical precursor to spot approval, will accelerate the likelihood of these ETFs entering the market sooner than the typical months-to-years timeline.

In Sum

Crypto remains a paradox of chaos and order, speculation and innovation, short-term noise and long-term vision. The past year reminded us that narratives can shift on a dime, yet the underlying momentum—whether driven by policy, technology, or community—continues to propel us forward.

What lies ahead isn’t necessarily a continuation of what came before, but the next iteration of a market that refuses to stand still. With BTC now hovering above $100K, a government in our favor taking the reins, and the four-year cycle still on schedule, 2025 holds promise for those willing to toss a stone.